Saturday, January 5, 2008

Perdictions and Thoughts on the BCS Championship

Hello my southern SEC fan Bee-Ouches who think high and might of there selves, thinking they are the Gods of Football! I have a some stats as to why I think Ohio State will win from some research!

The Buckeyes own the advantage in the most vital stat, Yards Per Pass Attempt Differential. They are +3.1 to +1.7 for LSU, a decisive edge.

The leader in that stat invariably wins the title game, including so-called upsets by Florida and Texas the past two years.

The last team to lose who had an edge in that stat was the Canes in '02. Miami had a phenomenal +4.4 vs. a terrific +2.7 for Ohio State. Anyone who thought that Ohio St team couldn't play with Miami was a rank moron. A +2.7 team can play with anybody.

Miami, of course, was a huge favorite, at -13. This time the team with the edge is a juicy underdog, nearly a TD.

In other words, LSU's got a fight on their hands.

Now, some of the standard caveats apply. LSU played in the more defensive-minded SEC. The Big Ten offenses aren't that great. Florida crushed Ohio State. Blah blah blah.! BS! All of that may be true but the gap in the numbers is significant and LSU's 1.7 seems to be a low figure for a supposed favorite.

I wasn't quite sold on those numbers until I read an article on LSU's Matt Flynn.

Matt Flynn is a mediocrity. In the end I think that's what will be LSU’s death. You don't start for the first time as a 5th year senior if you are special. Flynn averages a lame 6.7 YPPA, which is much lower than any national championship QB in recent history. I looked it up and every championship team going back 10 years averaged at least 7.8 YPPA. So Flynn isn't even close.

Boeckman is right in the standard ball park, at 8.0.

All kinds of bells start ringing in my head when I read that. Let's conclude with an offering from Heisman Pundit about what he calls the "Les Miles Handicap".

With [Ryan] Perrilloux taking the snaps and handing off much of the time to Keiland Williams, LSU probably would've been a dominant 13-0 this year. Instead, Miles took the 'safe' route, playing Flynn and Jacob Hester on his way to an 11-2 mark that included several other close calls.

Now, it could be that Miles will take full advantage of the speed and talent that is available to him when the Tigers play Ohio State in New Orleans. But it's probable that he will just go with what brung him to the dance in the first place--a not-so-dynamic duo that, frankly, is a better fit for the Big Ten than the SEC.

If Miles once again decides to rely on these less-talented (though safer) options, I think the Buckeyes will win this one but it wont be a easy win.


LSU: 25

Enough said!

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